A comprehensive review of national vaccine data compiled by Bader Law reveals a shifting public health landscape marked by rising exemption rates, uneven confidence in vaccines, and a resurgence of preventable diseases. The findings show how political identity, demographic factors, and regional disparities influence both vaccine uptake and adverse event reporting. The data also highlights how these trends have contributed to the largest measles outbreak in the United States in years.
COVID‑19 Vaccine Outcomes and Myocarditis Trends
The study begins by examining the relationship between COVID‑19 vaccination and myocarditis. Federal data shows that COVID‑19 has killed more than 2,000 children and teenagers, including 700 infants. At the same time, an FDA official has linked ten child deaths to COVID‑19 vaccination, citing myocarditis as a contributing factor.
Key data points:
- Young males between 12 and 30 face the highest myocarditis risk after vaccination.
- 81 percent of myocarditis patients recovered within three months.
- COVID‑19 infection increases myocarditis risk sevenfold compared to vaccination.
- 61 percent of myocarditis cases occurred in men.
- Hospitalization was required in 1.07 percent of cases.
- Fatal myocarditis cases were extremely rare at 0.015 percent.
- Moderna’s vaccine showed the highest myocarditis rate among the vaccines studied.
- Studies from the United States and Mexico reported myocarditis rates nearly three times higher than those in Europe.
These findings illustrate the complexity of evaluating vaccine risk, particularly when comparing vaccine‑related myocarditis to myocarditis caused by COVID‑19 infection.
Public Confidence and Political Divides
The study highlights a significant divide in public confidence between traditional vaccines and the COVID‑19 vaccine.
Confidence levels:
- Measles vaccine: 83 percent
- Pneumonia vaccine: 82 percent
- Shingles and flu vaccines: 74 percent
- COVID‑19 vaccine: 56 percent
Political differences are pronounced:
- 87 percent of Democrats express confidence in COVID‑19 vaccines.
- 55 percent of independents
- 30 percent of Republicans
This divide has contributed to rising nonmedical exemptions and declining vaccination coverage.
Exemption Rates Reach New Highs
Nonmedical vaccine exemptions among kindergarteners have risen steadily. During the 2024 to 2025 school year, 3.6 percent of kindergarteners received exemptions, compared with 2.2 percent in 2014 to 2015. Medical exemptions remain below 1 percent, indicating that most exemptions stem from personal or religious beliefs.
Top States for Nonmedical Exemptions
| State | Percent of Exempt Kindergarteners |
|---|---|
| Idaho | 15.1% |
| Utah | 10% |
| Oregon | 9.7% |
| Alaska | 9% |
| Arizona | 9% |
ABC News attributes high exemption rates in rural states to limited access to medical providers and lingering concerns about COVID‑19 vaccines.
Measles Cases Reach Highest Levels in Years
Declining vaccination coverage has coincided with a dramatic rise in measles cases. During the 2024 to 2025 school year, national kindergarten vaccination coverage fell to:
- 92.1 percent for DTaP
- 92.5 percent for MMR
- 92.5 percent for polio
Additional findings:
- 286,000 kindergarteners lacked documentation of completed MMR vaccination.
- Exemptions increased in 36 states and the District of Columbia.
- 138,000 kindergarteners were exempt from one or more vaccines.
By December 16, 2025, the United States recorded 1,958 measles cases, a sharp increase from previous years.
Measles Case Breakdown
Age distribution:
- Under 5 years: 512 cases
- Ages 5 to 19: 808 cases
- Over 20: 625 cases
Vaccination status:
- Unvaccinated or unknown: 93 percent
- One MMR dose: 3 percent
- Two MMR doses: 4 percent
Measles Trends Over Time
| Year | Cases |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 1,958 |
| 2024 | 285 |
| 2023 | 59 |
| 2022 | 121 |
| 2021 | 49 |
States With the Most Measles Cases (2025)
| State | Cases |
|---|---|
| Texas | 803 |
| Arizona | 182 |
| South Carolina | 142 |
| Utah | 122 |
| New Mexico | 100 |
Texas experienced the largest outbreak, beginning in a Mennonite community and spreading to other under‑vaccinated areas.
States With the Fewest Cases (2025)
- Zero cases: Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Carolina, West Virginia
- One case: Alabama, Connecticut
Political Identity and Adverse Event Reporting
A cross‑sectional study of 620,456 adverse event reports found that:
- A 10 percent increase in Republican voting correlated with a 5 percent increase in reported COVID‑19 vaccine adverse events.
- Severe adverse event reporting increased 25 percent under the same conditions.
These findings suggest that political identity influences not only vaccine uptake but also the likelihood of reporting adverse events.
Gender Differences in Adverse Events and Fatalities
Among 45,843 adverse events after one vaccine dose:
- 31,018 were female
- 14,688 were male
- 137 unconfirmed
Fatalities from 2020 to 2025 totaled 7,259, including:
- 4,348 male deaths
- 2,847 female deaths
Top States for Male Deaths
| State | Deaths |
|---|---|
| Kentucky | 418 |
| Texas | 294 |
| Michigan | 216 |
| Florida | 191 |
| California | 190 |
Top States for Female Deaths
| State | Deaths |
|---|---|
| Kentucky | 339 |
| Texas | 209 |
| California | 130 |
| Florida | 101 |
| Michigan | 97 |
Kentucky stands out with 757 total deaths, three times higher than expected based on population.
Adverse Event Reporting by State
Highest Number of Adverse Reports (First COVID‑19 Dose)
| State | Reports |
|---|---|
| California | 4,726 |
| Texas | 2,894 |
| Florida | 2,581 |
| Michigan | 2,540 |
| New York | 2,349 |
Lowest Number of Reports
| State | Reports |
|---|---|
| Wyoming | 82 |
| Vermont | 119 |
| District of Columbia | 134 |
| North Dakota | 135 |
| Delaware | 137 |
A Public Health Landscape in Transition
The study from Bader Law shows that vaccine behavior in the United States is shaped by a combination of medical outcomes, political identity, and regional disparities. Rising exemption rates, declining vaccination coverage, and increased adverse event reporting have contributed to the largest measles outbreak in years. The findings illustrate how public health risks evolve when confidence in vaccines varies widely across states and demographic groups.
