On June 12, 2026, SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker SPCX. The IPO was a major success, with the company placing 38,888,888 shares and raising approximately $85.7 billion in gross proceeds, according to the company’s official statement.
Elon Musk has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to build strong narratives around his companies. The phenomenon often described as the “Musk Premium” has been observed previously with Tesla, and it appears that we are seeing the same dynamic play out with SpaceX today.
Both companies generate a lot of excitement among individual investors because each embodies substantial future expectations that have yet to materialize. However, they also carry powerful narratives that resonate particularly strongly with retail investors.
There is one difference. While Tesla stock trades at around $400 per share and the company is certainly expensive ($1.42 trillion market cap; 367x trailing P/E) – SpaceX’s multiples relative to current revenue are in an entirely different dimension. Based on the revenue of approximately $13.7B per year in 2025, and annualized Q1 2026 revenue of approximately $4.7B, Tesla trades at around 15.8x current revenue; SpaceX trades at approximately 129x.
Retail investors need to recognize the extremely high valuation levels associated with SpaceX. While SpaceX may appear relatively inexpensive compared to other companies within the space sector – every traditional financial metric is stretched to almost absurd levels for a company with less than $20 billion in revenue and a net loss.
In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.674 billion in total revenue, recorded an operating loss of $2.589 billion, incurred a net loss of approximately $4.94 billion, and generated adjusted EBITDA of $6.584 billion. In Q1 2026, SpaceX generated total revenue of approximately $4.694 billion, recorded an operating loss of $1.943 billion, and generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.127 billion.
By traditional valuation standards, the valuation achieved during the last few weeks is exceptionally high. At $185 per a SpaceX stock, the company traded at roughly 130x 2025 revenue and nearly identical multiples when measured against annualized Q1 2026 revenue. Further, the multiple on adjusted EBITDA is even more extreme: approximately 368x 2025 adjusted EBITDA and more than 530x annualized Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA. The disconnect between the market price of SpaceX and the company’s current financial metrics is simply enormous.
As of today, SpaceX’s primary business model is based largely on generating profitability from its Starlink/Connectivity services, which represented approximately 61% of total 2025 revenue. Over the last three years, the number of Starlink subscribers has grown from 2.3 million to 10.3 million – although average monthly monetization has decreased from $99/month in 2023 to $66/month in Q1 2026.
The biggest problem is the company’s AI initiatives. For now, xAI is losing money heavily – while all of the other projects related to artificial intelligence exist primarily as bets supported by a compelling story. It appears that the market is using the AI label to apply multiples more commonly associated with software and platform businesses to a company whose current operations remain fundamentally different.
Crowded Trade & Instruments Used
Clearly, there is a crowded trade. On its debut, SpaceX options traded around 1.8 million contracts for approximately $2.8 billion in premium, with calls far exceeding puts and creating conditions for potential gamma-squeeze dynamics.
In addition to shares and options, single-stock and leveraged ETFs have emerged. A recently filed SEC Prospectus from Defiance described products intended to provide 2x long or -2x inverse exposure to daily changes in the value of a security issued by SpaceX through swaps or listed options. According to the prospectus, these products were not designed for use in long-term investment strategies and, due to compounding effects arising from high volatility, results can vary substantially from the performance of the referenced equity.
A large-scale ecosystem of highly speculative investment vehicles has emerged almost contemporaneously with the equity itself. We are talking about a layered ecosystem of exposure made up of shares, options, leveraged ETFs, inverse ETFs, and income products based on volatility. This structure can massively amplify both upside and downside moves.
Several features commonly associated with speculative bubbles are currently visible in the market. Investors considering participation in the IPO should take care to understand how much selling pressure may occur in the short-term as insiders and pre-IPO holders seek to monetize their ownership positions in the stock; significant declines are possible.
Furthermore, given the extraordinary level of attention surrounding the IPO, investors should prepare themselves for a potentially volatile ride before entering the market.
