Where are automotive sales headed in the West? Looking at the major Anglophone and European economies, car sales are an indicator of economic stability and growth. However, there is a new player shaking up the results, and that’s Electric Vehicles (EVs). Though the world runs on petrol (gasoline) and diesel, many Western nations are looking to transition to EVs to achieve zero emissions targets and reduce their carbon footprint. So, what is the state of play of car sales in Western nations, and what can we expect in the future?
The United States and Canada
One of the biggest car markets, the United States may see a bumper year with a supply of over three million new cars for sale during 2024. EV sales in 2024 are expected to grow year on year by a slender 16% compared to the huge 64% we saw in 2023. Some EVs will lose access to Federal tax credits though others will pick them up – though some predict that US EV sales will exceed the one million sales record set in 2023, taking a 10% market share. Canadian car sales, which have slumped due to the pandemic and high inflation, are expected to reach 1.7 million units sold during 2024.
United Kingdom
The 2024 outlook for the UK car market looks healthy, as they experienced a 10.4% year on year increase during March 2024 – its 20th consecutive month of growth. Cox Automotive, UK’s automotive retail giant, predicts that the new UK car market will exceed two million registrations during 2024, an increase of 8.4%. EV sales may increase due to the UK’s new Zero Emissions Vehicle mandate coming into force this year, requiring manufacturers to sell at least 22% of their stock as zero emissions vehicles.
Australia and New Zealand
Car sales figures in Australia and New Zealand have set records in recent times, with Australian new car sales posting a bumper 109,647 units sold, representing a 13.2% increase over the first quarter of 2023 according to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Battery electric vehicles made up 9.5%of new vehicle sales up from 6.8% in March 2023. With steady growth experienced each month, it’s likely these trends will continue despite high inflation and interest rates.
In New Zealand, 21,580 new passenger cars have been registered throughout the year to date in 2024, though overall NZ car sales declined by 9.5% year on year during 2023.
Europe
New car sales in the European Union increased by 14% in 2023 totalling 11.56 million units, with BEV sales growing by 37% and gaining a market share of 14.6%. Revenue in the passenger car market is projected to reach US$440.6bn in 2024, with an annual growth rate of -0.42% over 2024-2028. There is an expectation that 2024 will shift at least 12.1 million passenger cars this year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and representing an increase of 4.7%. EV sales may slow due to EU imposing tariffs on cheaper overseas made models to favour local manufacturers. France and Germany, experiencing budget crunches, are also winding back EV subsidies.
